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World: 2026 - 2027 El Niño: Special Report (October 2, 2026 )

World: 2026 - 2027 El Niño: Special Report (October 2, 2026 )

Countries: World, Angola, Burkina Faso, Chad, Colombia, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Niger, Pakistan, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. FEWS NET Special Reports provide in-depth analysis of food security issues of particular concern. In 2026–2027, FEWS NET will publish a series of El Niño Special Reports, focusing on countries where FEWS NET has a presence and where El Niño impacts are of concern. The first report, in October 2026, provides an overview of the event, distinguishes the timing of rainfall impacts from peak impacts on acute food security outcomes, and provides region-level summaries. It also examines the global impacts on food availability and prices and the longer-term implications for food security. A second report will be published in late 2026 and a third and final report will follow in early-to-mid 2027, both of which will provide more detailed early warning of likely outcomes in regions where El Niño impacts on food security occur later in 2027. Reports will also update on the potential transition to La Niña. Key Messages The 2026/27 El Niño has rapidly strengthened to very strong levels and is expected to drive significant rainfall anomalies across FEWS NET geographies. Below-average rainfall has already occurred across unimodal areas of East Africa, the Sahel of West Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Pakistan. Southern Africa will face below-average rains during the October 2026 to March 2027 rainy season, while the Horn of Africa will see heavy rains and heightened flood risk during the October to December 2026 rains. The most severe food insecurity outcomes from El Niño-induced rainfall anomalies typically emerge during the following lean season, rather than during the rainy season itself. This makes El Niño an important early warning signal, giving governments and humanitarians time to deliver a humanitarian food assistance response before the most severe acute food insecurity materializes. Unimodal East Africa and Southern Africa are of highest concern. In both regions, El Niño is expected to result in widespread drought and be the primary driver of high food assistance needs in 2027. While El Niño is expected to have its most significant food security impacts in areas directly affected by extreme rainfall anomalies, indirect impacts are likely to emerge through regional and international trade and markets. These indirect import-related risks are particularly elevated in Southern Africa through regional maize trade, and in West Africa and Yemen through international imports. Global output of maize, wheat, and rice has changed little on balance in the strong and very strong El Niño years since 1980. In the crop marketing years of these events, global output fell by at most 3.9 percent from the year before, in 1987/88. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects global 2026/27 production of these crops to be 2.7 percent below last year, but still the second-largest crop on record . Food security outcomes are often driven by multiple coexisting shocks. FEWS NET’s assessed populations in need are available in many of FEWS NET’s global and country-level products , but these estimates represent needs driven by all relevant factors. This report does not seek to – and it is often not feasible to – disentangle the relative contribution of each driver in order to identify needs attributable to one factor, in this case El Niño only. Nonetheless, the regional summaries do identify where El Niño is, or is not, considered a primary driver of acute food insecurity and associated food assistance needs. Beyond its immediate impacts, El Niño can increase vulnerability to future shocks by eroding household coping capacity. Where livelihoods are damaged and recovery is insufficient, households will face greater difficulty managing subsequent shocks. The longer-term food security implications depend not only on current rainfall conditions, but also on efforts to mitigate risks and support recovery. While this report focuses on early warning of both the ongoing and forecast impacts of the 2026/27 El Niño, it is important to signal early warning for the forecast transition to La Niña in mid-to-late 2027. Although confidence in this transition is relatively low given the long lead time, a shift to La Niña should be prepared for, as it will introduce a new set of rainfall impacts and food security risks.

AngolaBurkina FasoChad
Oct 7, 2026 · byReliefWeb
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Zambia strengthens health emergency response capacity

Country: Zambia Source: World Health Organization Lusaka—More than 60 Zambian health professionals are being trained to respond rapidly to health emergencies and provide timely support to affected communities. Zambia becomes the 32nd country in the African Region to roll out the training, joining a regional effort to build a skilled emergency workforce ready to deploy whenever and wherever it is needed. With funding from the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO), the World Health Organization (WHO) is supporting the seven-day training for multidisciplinary responders from the Ministry of Health, the Zambia National Public Health Institute, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock and the military. WHO’s support connects workforce development with the coordination systems needed to assess threats, establish priorities and organize response operations in affected areas. The training forms part of AVoHC-SURGE, which combines the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention’s African Volunteer Health Corps with WHO’s Strengthening and Utilizing Response Groups for Emergencies initiative. It supports countries to develop multidisciplinary teams that can be mobilized within 24 to 48 hours, reinforcing national capacity while enabling support across borders. Delays in response can allow an outbreak to spread rapidly, interrupt essential health services and leave people without timely advice or care. The training helps participants understand their responsibilities within a wider response and how to work together under pressure. “AVoHC-SURGE is a commitment to protecting our people and saving lives. By volunteering our expertise, we are taking responsibility for our communities while contributing to health security beyond our borders. We look forward to extending this initiative across the country,” said Dr Nyambe Sinyange, Acting Director General of the Zambia National Public Health Institute. The training advances Zambia’s national SURGE roadmap developed earlier this year with contributions from government, emergency response agencies, academia and partners. The roadmap prioritizes a roster of trained responders, stronger public health emergency operations centres (PHEOCs) at national and provincial levels, reliable supply chains and improved deployment processes. WHO, working with Africa CDC and partners, is supporting implementation through training, system testing and readiness verification. This approach addresses both the skills responders need and the operational arrangements that enable them to use those skills effectively. “The strength of an emergency response lies in having people who know what to do, can work together and are ready to act. Through AVoHC-SURGE, WHO is supporting Zambia to build that capacity within its own institutions, so that communities can receive timely support when an emergency strikes,” said Dr Clement Peter Lasuba, WHO Representative in Zambia. Beyond the course, the priority is to maintain an active roster and use regular simulation exercises to test how teams would be mobilized and supported. This will help Zambia maintain the operational readiness needed to deploy trained responders within 24 to 48 hours of an emergency. Media contacts Chinyere Nwonye Emergencies Communications Officer WHO Africa Regional Office nwonyec@who.int +2348034645524 Collins Boakye-Agyemang Communications and marketing officer Tel: + 242 06 520 65 65 (WhatsApp) Email: boakyeagyemangc@who.int

Zambia
Oct 7, 2026 · byReliefWeb
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World: Testing coordination before hazards become disasters

Countries: World, Angola, Côte d'Ivoire, Zambia Source: UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction Across Africa, climate-related hazards place growing pressure on communities. For Angola, Côte d'Ivoire and Zambia, floods and droughts have been identified as significant and recurring hazards, with risks projected to evolve under changing climatic conditions, including under the 2026/2027 El Niño. As climate-related hazards intensify across the continent, effective action and coordination based on early warning information becomes more critical than ever before. In July 2026, the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) Regional Office for Africa, co-organized three discussion-based exercises (DBXs) in Angola, Côte d'Ivoire and Zambia. DBXs are a type of simulation exercise designed to surface strengths, gaps, and bottlenecks in the early warning value chain. They emphasize sequencing and timing, allowing participants to examine how their collaboration efforts are affected as new information becomes available. The three DBXs convened separate groups of national stakeholders to explore how continental early warning information can support preparedness. While all the exercises shared a common methodology, each was tailored to the hazard profiles and institutional arrangements of each country. The exercises were convened under the Disaster Risk Reduction Capacity Building in Africa programme funded by the Government of Italy. They were facilitated with support from the African Union Commission and the CIMA Research Foundation. At national level, they were co-organized by the Civil Protection and Firefighters Service of Angola (SPCB), the National Platform for Risk Reduction and Disaster Management (PN-RRC) in Côte d'Ivoire, and the Disaster Risk Management Division (DRMD) in Zambia. In Angola, participants worked through a flood scenario reflecting the country's exposure to heavy rainfall and riverine flooding. In Côte d'Ivoire and Zambia, the exercises centered on drought conditions, enabling participants to examine how early warning information can support decision-making in the face of slow-onset hazards. By simulating realistic disaster scenarios in a low-risk environment, the exercises enabled stakeholders to test existing procedures, clarify institutional roles and examine how information flows between technical agencies, disaster management authorities and key decision makers, and towards the communities who rely on these warnings and advisories to take action. The discussions helped identify where warning information may be delayed, misunderstood or insufficiently linked to decision-making processes, providing a basis for strengthening preparedness plans and standard operating procedures. A key focus of the exercise was familiarizing national stakeholders with the early warning products created by the African Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Early Action System (AMHEWAS) programme . Drawing on forecasts and information from its continental network, AMHEWAS provides its Member States with forecasting products, which support the monitoring of evolving hazards. These include products like the Continental Watch, a multi-hazard early warning bulletin for emerging fast-onset weather risks, and the Africa Drought Watch, which provides information on rainfall deficits, vegetation stress and evolving drought patterns.support the monitoring of evolving hazards. These include products like the Continental Watch, a multi-hazard early warning bulletin for emerging fast-onset weather risks, and the Africa Drought Watch, which provides information on rainfall deficits, vegetation stress and evolving drought patterns. “This simulation has opened our eyes to drought hazards. Drought has not been well understood in Côte d'Ivoire, as we are mostly affected by flood events. This exercise has helped us learn more about drought monitoring, and helped us to understand how to take ownership of AMHEWAS products. Like the Aeronautical Meteorological Airport Development And Operations Company (SODEXAM) and other organisations here, we are working out how to support decision-making in the country with high-quality hydrological data.” - Mr. Ouattara Almamy, Deputy Director of Hydrological Studies, Hydrology Directorate of the Ministry of Hydrology, Health, and Sanitation of Côte d'Ivoire. The DBXs demonstrated to participants how continental products can provide an additional layer of hazard and vulnerability data for improved preparedness, particularly for transboundary hazards. By combining AMHEWAS information with national forecasts and local observations, decision-makers will have a more comprehensive understanding of emerging risks, and will be able to take action earlier. "[This DXB] will help to develop Zambia's national anticipatory action framework, especially with the country's trigger thresholds, and with formulating and achieving wider stakeholder consultation. This exercise will also enrich further discussions around drought protocols at the regional and continental levels, for which we have pledged to provide early warnings for each and every population at risk by 2030." - Mr. Likezo Musobani, Director in charge of Disaster Risk Management, Disaster Risk Management Division of Zambia The relevance of these exercises is underscored by the ongoing El Niño 2026/2027 event. During the Twenty-first African Continental Climate Outlook Forum (ACCOF-21), stakeholders stated that African countries must move their focus from simply producing and disseminating forecasts to fostering a continental coordinated system, ensuring that information from various regions will be co-produced and shared. These DBXs help to foster coordinated systems not only on the continental level but also at the national level. Effective coordination cannot be assumed, it must constantly be practiced and improved. The importance of strengthening coordination and preparedness was also highlighted at the Africa Early Warnings Forum , held in Addis Ababa in September 2026. The Forum featured a plenary on the implications of the anticipated 2026-2027 El Niño event, during which experts and government officials emphasized that early warning systems must not only generate forecasts, but also ensure that warnings lead to timely and effective early action. The Forum culminated in the Addis Ababa Call to Action on Early Warnings in Africa , which calls for stronger, more coordinated early warning systems across the continent. The best way to ensure that systems are coordinated and ready to respond is by constantly exercising them. By simulating real-world disaster scenarios, these discussion-based exercises help transform plans and forecasts into effective early action.

AngolaCôte d'IvoireEl Niño
Oct 7, 2026 · byReliefWeb
Zambia - Key Message Update: Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes expected in northern, central, and eastern Zambia, September 2026 - January 2027

Zambia - Key Message Update: Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes expected in northern, central, and eastern Zambia, September 2026 - January 2027

Country: Zambia Source: Famine Early Warning System Network Please refer to the attached file. Key Messages Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through September in parts of the Southern and Western provinces and in localized areas of the east. From October 2026 to January 2027, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are anticipated to expand to southwestern, eastern, and northern areas as household food stocks decline seasonally and market dependence increases. El Niño-induced erratic and below-average rainfall is expected to reduce cultivation and associated agricultural labor opportunities, lowering incomes and weakening poor households’ purchasing power. The Ministry of Fisheries and Livestock's continued restrictions on livestock movement to prevent the spread of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) are particularly affecting the Western and Southern provinces. In addition, the seasonal fishing ban from December to March, intended to prevent overfishing, is expected to be in effect. These measures are expected to further constrain livelihood opportunities in affected areas through January 2027, further reducing household income during a period of high market reliance. Staple food prices declined further in August as abundant maize supplies improved food access for market-dependent households. According to the Zambia Statistics Agency (Zamstat), national average prices for maize grain rose 4.4 percent from August to September but remain 15 percent below last year's levels. By August, purchases by the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) had reached approximately 1.0 million metric tons (MT) , double the initial target, at 347 ZMW/50 kilogram (kg) bag, nearly 60 percent above the open-market price of roughly 220 ZMW/50 kg bag. A recently announced agreement to export 540,000 MT to Kenya provides an additional outlet for surplus production. The above-average maize supplies are expected to continue through at least January 2027. The ongoing very strong El Niño is expected to bring erratic , below-average rainfall during the 2026/27 rainy season, particularly in southern and western Zambia. A delayed onset of rainfall in southern and southeastern areas, coupled with prolonged dry spells during the critical December-February crop development period, is expected to constrain planting and crop growth. This will reduce cultivation, agricultural labor opportunities, and related income.

El NiñoZambia
Oct 4, 2026 · byReliefWeb
World: Africa CDC Epidemic Intelligence Weekly Report, September 2026

World: Africa CDC Epidemic Intelligence Weekly Report, September 2026

Countries: World, Angola, Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Zambia Source: Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention Please refer to the attached file. Welcome to our Epidemic Intelligence Weekly Report, your trusted source for real-time updates on priority events of concern on the continent. The narrative brought to you focuses on three main areas: the epidemiological situation, event assessment (risk assessment and geoscope) and public health interventions by the affected Member State, partners, and Africa CDC. Every week we highlight events reported to Africa CDC that rank from moderate to very high risk as per the Africa CDC risk assessment tool. Geographic Focus: Reports could either focus on events affecting single country or multiple countries. Inclusion criteria: While Africa CDC continues to track all public health events on the continent, this report highlights only moderate to very high-risk events (with new updates in the reporting week). Events: We focus on a range of health threats, ranging from emerging infectious diseases to endemic conditions, and natural disasters. We follow a one-health multisectoral approach highlighting events across all relevant sectors: animal, environmental and human. This Event-Based Surveillance Weekly Report is your compass for navigating Africa’s public health landscape. We empower you with the latest information and insights, for informed decisions and effective interventions to attain a healthy and prosperous Africa.

CDCneutral
AfricaAngolaBurundi
Oct 2, 2026 · byReliefWeb
World: Crop Monitor for Early Warning | No. 120 – October 2026

World: Crop Monitor for Early Warning | No. 120 – October 2026

Country: World Source: GEOGLAM Crop Monitor Please refer to the attached file. Overview In East Africa , prolonged rainfall deficits since around April and high temperatures resulted in below average yields in many areas, including main producing regions in Ethiopia and western Kenya. In West Africa , agro-climatic conditions remain mostly favourable for ongoing cropping activities with some localized areas of dry conditions rainfall deficits along parts of the Sahel. In the Middle East & North Africa , rice prospects remain favourable in Egypt, Iraq, and Iran, and land preparation is beginning for the upcoming 2026/27 wheat season. In Southern Africa , winter wheat prospects have degraded in the main producing region of South Africa due to recent dry impacts. Elsewhere, in Zimbabwe and Zambia wheat prospects remain favourable. In Central & South Asia , the 2025/26 spring wheat harvest is underway with generally favourable conditions with some areas of dryness. In Southeast Asia , conditions are generally favourable for dry-season rice and maize in the south, while drought is negatively impacting wet-season crops in Thailand and Cambodia, and heavy rains are negatively impacting parts of the Philippines, Vietnam and Myanmar. In Central America & the Caribbean , harvesting of Primera season crops is complete, and below average yields resulted across the region due to prolonged dry spells and high temperatures since the start of the season.

Asia de Sud-EstCambodiaEthiopia
Oct 2, 2026 · byReliefWeb
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World: Super El Niño threatens to push 8 million children into acute hunger across East and Southern Africa by early 2027 – Save the Children

Country: World Source: Save the Children NAIROBI, 22 September 2026 – About 8 million children across East and Southern Africa could face acute hunger by early 2027, a rise of 30%, as one of the strongest El Nino weather events in recent years fuels a growing food crisis, according to new analysis by Save the Children. Analysis of recent data from global hunger monitor, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), found that the number of people facing crisis levels of hunger or worse (IPC Phase 3+) in six countries is expected to surge from 12.6 million people to 16.4 million by March 2027 driven in part by the impacts of the looming “Super” El Niño. Currently six million children in those six countries are experiencing severe food shortages [1] but this is set to rise to eight million in the next few months unless urgent action is taken, Save the Children said. The agency’s analysis only covered countries with recent IPC reports where El Niño is projected to have devastating impacts including Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Uganda and Kenya. New hunger data is due out shortly for Somalia which has already been flagged for being at risk of El Nino-related floods . Uganda is projected to have the highest absolute number of people facing acute food insecurity in coming months, with 4.4 million people expected to be in crisis or worse levels of hunger by early 2027 – a 22% increase on previous figures. The situation is particularly bad in the Karamoja region of northeastern Uganda which has seen an increase of more than 40% in the number of people facing crisis or emergency food insecurity. Zambia is forecast to experience the sharpest deterioration, with the number of people facing crisis-level hunger rising by 80% to over 1.2 million people, while Madagascar, Mozambique and Malawi are expected to see increases of 75%, 55% and 35% respectively. While food security is expected to improve in Kenya overall by the start of 2027, having already deteriorated this year, the situation among refugees in the country is expected to deteriorate due to El Niño-related flooding. In Mozambique, the forecast comes as many communities in the central provinces are still recovering from severe flooding earlier this year, while conflict driven- displacement in Cabo Delgado continues to put pressure on food, water and health services. In Madagascar, about 502,000 children aged under 5 - or one in 10- are expected to suffer from acute malnutrition between May 2026 and April 2027. This includes about 78,000 children expected to have severe acute malnutrition, the most deadly form of malnutrition requiring urgent medical treatment [2]. The worsening food crisis across much of the region comes as a result of one of the strongest El Niño weather events in recent years, coupled with record-breaking global temperatures, a deadly combination that will cause dangerous droughts, crop failures and livestock losses across parts of Southern Africa. At the same time, the El Niño phenomenon will cause devastating floods in parts of East Africa, pushing already vulnerable families deeper into crisis. Save the Children said El Niño is unfolding against a backdrop of conflict, hunger, displacement, economic instability and humanitarian funding cuts. Without early action, the aid agency said, climate shocks are likely to compound existing vulnerabilities and deepen humanitarian needs, particularly for children and their families. Yvonne Arunga, Regional Director for Save the Children in East and Southern Africa, said: "Hunger is not just about empty stomachs. Children who do not have enough nutritious food are more likely to become malnourished, fall ill, miss school and face increased risks of exploitation and abuse. The longer families go without support, the harder it becomes for children to recover . “When families' livelihoods are destroyed by floods or drought, children may face greater risks of child labour, trafficking, neglect, violence, forced early marriage, and other forms of exploitation. “We know El Niño is coming. We know which children are most at risk. And we know that anticipatory action works. Governments must turn early warnings into early action to protect essential services like schools, hospitals, water and social protection systems, before the crisis hits. The international community and donors must invest now, before droughts, floods and food crises escalate. Every dollar spent helping communities prepare and act early can save lives, protect livelihoods, and reduce the need for much larger humanitarian responses late r .” Save the Children has invested significantly in anticipatory action, taking practical action ahead of forecasted shocks to reduce impacts on children and communities. Across the region, Save the Children is helping families prepare for floods, storms and droughts such as through early warning information targeted at children, evacuation planning, strengthening of community preparedness, and anticipatory cash assistance to allow families to prepare for disasters. Save the Children is also reinforcing health facilities, schools and water systems so they can better withstand floods, droughts and other climate-related shocks. Ends. Notes to Editors: [1] Save the Children compared the most recent Acute Food Insecurity analyses (IPC Phase 3+) from six countries in East and Southern Africa; the countries were selected due to having IPC analyses with a validity period as of September 2026 and a projection that looks ahead into the end of 2026/ the first quarter of 2027 when the effects of El Niño are expected to peak. In all cases, Save the Children compared the number of people currently facing IPC3+, with the projected figure for early 2027 within the same analysis report. The number of children in IPC3+ for each country was estimated by looking at the total number of people facing IPC3+ levels of food insecurity, and applying the national share of children in the population according to the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 revision. [2] According to data from IPC - Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

El NiñoKenyaMadagascar
Sep 21, 2026 · byReliefWeb