To identify potential Bitcoin price scenarios, I conduct a comprehensive analysis across multiple timeframes, moving from the higher timeframes to the lower ones. This approach allows me to establish the broader market context first and then identify more precise areas for potential entries.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/c7VBCJky/
Monthly timeframe
I always begin my analysis with the monthly chart.
At this stage, the key area is the $82,000–83,000 zone. It is important to treat it as a range rather than one exact price level.
Historically, this area has influenced the market on several occasions. In 2025, it acted as support, from which Bitcoin subsequently rallied towards its previous all-time high. The market is now retesting the same area from below, which means it is currently functioning as resistance.
Therefore, the long-term timeframe is not yet providing a sufficiently strong or convincing buy signal.
In my analysis, I use different colours for levels and chart objects originating from different timeframes. Monthly levels are always marked in red, weekly levels in pink, and lower-timeframe structures in other colours.
This allows me to move to a lower timeframe and immediately understand where a particular level originated and how much weight its signal should carry.
The underlying principle is straightforward: the higher the timeframe, the stronger the signal. For example, if a four-hour support zone produces a potential buy signal while the price is simultaneously approaching monthly resistance and generating a sell signal, I will generally prioritise the higher-timeframe signal.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/c7VBCJky/
Weekly timeframe
The weekly chart continues to show a long-term uptrend, marked in pink.
The third point of contact with the lower trend boundary performed exceptionally well in July. The strong upward impulse we observed originated directly from this trend support.
This is another example of technical analysis working effectively when it is applied comprehensively and supported by disciplined risk management.
The price is currently positioned between several important technical areas. The moving averages around $74,000–76,000 are still providing a degree of support. However, this support appears weaker than the monthly resistance located around $82,000–83,000.
Consequently, buying Bitcoin at the current levels has some technical justification, but there is also a meaningful risk of a deeper decline.
If I begin building a position at the current price, I need to allocate my capital accordingly and retain sufficient capacity to increase the position at lower levels.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/c7VBCJky/
Daily timeframe
The daily chart clearly shows the monthly resistance around $82,000–83,000. Because this level originates from the higher timeframe, it carries greater significance.
At the same time, a local uptrend has formed on the daily chart. Its first point was established in July, the second around the middle of August, and a potential third point may form within the $67,000–68,000 area.
This zone also coincides with horizontal support around $67,000, providing additional technical confluence.
For that reason, the $67,000–68,000 area represents a potentially attractive buying opportunity. A buy-limit order could already be considered within this zone.
The stop-loss should be placed below $67,000, with sufficient room for normal price volatility — potentially around $64,000–65,000.
Under this scenario, the initial target and minimum upside objective would be a return towards $82,000.
4-hour timeframe
I use the four-hour chart to assess the current market structure and identify potential swing-trading opportunities within the week.
Following the previous sharp upward impulse, the area around $76,000 repeatedly acted as support.
The impulse itself had the characteristics of a short squeeze. As sellers’ stop-loss orders were triggered, the resulting forced buying added further momentum and accelerated the move higher.
Compared with traditional financial markets, Bitcoin remains a relatively low-liquidity instrument. At certain moments, insufficient market liquidity can therefore produce especially sharp and volatile price movements. In general, the relationship is inverse: the greater the liquidity, the lower the volatility — and vice versa.
Applying a Fibonacci retracement to the initial upward impulse shows that the subsequent pullback almost perfectly reached the 78.6% retracement level, located around $76,000.
This support zone then produced three noticeable rebounds. However, the price is now beginning to break through it.
To me, this suggests that support around $76,000 is becoming exhausted.
The latest local high was also lower than the previous one. Bitcoin initially reached approximately $82,000, while the following rally extended only towards $80,000. The subsequent highs and lows are also beginning to move lower.
This structure reduces the probability of an immediate continuation of the previous strong upward move.
The fundamental backdrop is not currently providing a sufficient catalyst for further growth either. The CLARITY Act did not pass in the United States, meaning that the market did not receive the positive development it had been anticipating.
This provides additional confirmation for my scenario in which Bitcoin retains the potential to move lower.
Overall scenario
Opening a short position from the current levels is theoretically possible. However, such a trade would be taken against the broader long-term trend and would therefore carry elevated risk.
I prefer to look for opportunities in the direction of the prevailing trend. For this reason, my preferred scenario remains a potential Bitcoin purchase within the $67,000–68,000 zone, with a stop-loss below the level — potentially around $64,000–65,000.
The first upside target would be the $82,000 area. Any position should nevertheless be structured with appropriate risk management and sufficient capital reserved for gradual accumulation at lower prices.
Sep 17, 2026 · byTradingView Ideas